The United States has imposed sanctions against 19 Indian firms out of a total of 398 globally, accusing them of helping Russia in its war against Ukraine.

Announced on 30 October, the move is spearheaded by the US Treasury and State Departments in an effort to punish “third-party countries” for assisting Kremlin.

According to the US Treasury Department, which is the national treasury and finance department of the federal government of the United States, the move is aimed at taking “decisive action across the globe to stop the flow of critical tools and technologies that Russia needs to wage its illegal and immoral war against Ukraine”.

It is also to block Russia from evading the thousands of sanctions already in place, since Russian economy has continued to grow and the country has continued to sell oil and gas on international markets.

Read official release here: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2700

But the latest announcement is a setback to the already strained ties between the US and India.

Experts point out that the US has specifically imposed sanctions merely weeks after accusing a former Indian intelligence officer of allegedly masterminding a foiled plot to murder Khalistani separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. This is the first time that the Indian government has been directly implicated in an attempted assassination of a dissident.

The move also comes close to the so-called power display of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, at the recent BRICS summit held in the Russian city of Kazan. The event grabbed global eyeballs over the display of a much-touted “alternative world order” to Western dominance.

Indian-Americans quiet on sanctions

With the US election barely a day away, many are analysing whether the recent spate of sanctions would have any impact on the voting sentiment of the Indian-American community.

There are more than 5.2 million Indian Americans in the US today, forming the second-largest immigrant group, with an important political voice due to their rapid demographic growth and professional success.

However, the community has chosen to stay quiet on the recent sanctions.

Democrat leader Ro Khanna, a powerful Indian American voice, hasn’t commented on the sanctions, even though in 2022, he had moved the US Congress seeking a waiver to India against sanctions for purchasing a missile defence system from Russia.

At the time, Khanna had said that the sanctions waiver was in the “best interests of a US-India partnership”.

This time however, Khanna, who currently represents California’s 17^th district and is expected for “an almost-certain win” in the 2024 elections from there, has chosen to stay quiet on the sanctions issue.

Would these sanctions therefore have any significant impact in the 2024 election?

Delving into the mindset of the Indian American community throws some light.

Chatter on social media platforms and community forums reveals the undercurrents and perceptions that shape up as a result of US imposing sanctions on India.

“Sanctioning, isolating, and weakening Russia is coming at a cost to the world,” says an older post on Indian-American community website Khabar.com from 2022. It elaborates that India continues to “bargain for even cheaper oil purchases from Russia, and has categorically rejected US pressure to cut off ties”. 

In another old post on the same website, Professor KM Venkat Narayan of Emory University forecasts that “India will continue to get around the sanctions diplomatically and make deals with Russia.”

“The US is using Indian-American Sikhs to bash Russia and India” with sanctions, says “Indian-Americans” handle on X (@HinduAmericans), which comments rigorously on hot topics. It also mentions Daleep Singh, American economist popularly known as the “architect of US’ Russia sanctions” as the “guy slapping unnecessary sanctions that ultimately hurt India.” (https://x.com/HinduAmericans/status/1850755207015121053)

This underscores the assumption that largely, the Indian American community may not look too favourably upon the sanctions strategy and this may play on their minds as they cast their vote this year.

On the other hand, reactions from Indians has been more direct.

“People in India also should be allowed to vote in POTUS election, because the actions of POTUS impact common people in India… POTUS actions like economic sanctions or war with countries leads to price rise and also businesses are impacted one way or the other,” writes X user Annayya (@gbtwter). (https://x.com/gbtwter/status/1846776070306975752)

A recent survey on Indian Americans’ Attitude shows interesting insights. 

Conducted by YouGov, the survey reveals that while 6 out of 10 registered Indian American voters have been keen to vote for Harris, there has been a modest shift, with 32% intending to vote for Trump, a greater share since the last election.

Experts say trends indicate that after the sanctions on Indian firms, this percentage could go up.

According to Eugene Grygo, editor of the New York-based Financial Technologies Forum, “Trump would likely lessen or eliminate sanctions on Russian firms and individuals, while a Harris administration would increase sanctions – particularly on Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’”. 

Grygo, quoting an interview with Tom Cardamone, president and CEO of US-based think-tank Global Financial Integrity, also says that by 2025, newer sanctions would likely be implemented because of Russia’s continued evasion of the sanctions due to the third-party countries that indirectly supply equipment to Russia. 

Indian companies currently sanctioned have been named as part of this “shadow fleet”.

But many Indian American voters that PressXpress spoke to, said that their main concerns for deciding who to vote for, are very different. 

Top among these deciding factors are: immigration, inflation, rising cost of living, community representation, reproductive rights, gun laws, youth connect, and the Gaza war.

Indian government meanwhile, has said it is cooperating with the US authorities to clear any misunderstandings and make sure that India conveys its complete commitment to non-proliferation controls.

“We will ensure that Indian companies understand applicable restrictions,” said the Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal at a recent press briefing to address concerns related to the sanctions.