Pakistan's election results were unclear on Friday, as no party secured a clear majority and independents allied with jailed former PM Imran Khan led the race.
According to the latest reports, the PTI-backed candidates had 92 seats, followed by PMLN with 71 and PPP with 54. Other parties had 36 seats and 13 seats were still pending.
PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif claimed victory and started coalition talks with other parties. PTI denied his claim and said it would form the federal and provincial governments.
Pakistan's army chief called for an end to the political 'anarchy and polarization'. General Asim Munir said the country needed a stable hand to unite its diverse people and make democracy work. The army is seen as the ultimate power in Pakistan and is accused of supporting Mr Nawaz.
Analysts said this uncertainty worsened the situation of a country facing an economic crisis and a rising militant threat in a divided society."
Big Boundary Without Bat
Khan’s PTI party faced a crackdown, arrests, and symbol loss before the elections. But his loyalists led the race, showing their real support. Khan was jailed for corruption and riot cases, which he said were fake. He was ousted as PM by his rivals in 2022. The PTI party faced police harassment while campaigning, which the authorities denied.
The party unofficially came into this election with its founder disqualified and in prison (he is already serving a three-year sentence for corruption but secure bail on Saturday in 12 cases linked to the May 9 riots), and its cricket bat symbol removed from the ballot.
Khan, who was ousted as prime minister by his opponents in 2022, has claimed that all the cases against him are politically motivated. The party says that its supporters have been intimidated and picked up by the police while it tries to run its campaign - allegations the authorities have always denied.
But the real challenges for the PTI wait ahead as the election results may change in the coming days as candidates from different parties challenge the results. But that is not the only thing to watch out for.
Pakistan requires all independents to join a political party within 3 days from the moment they are officially declared or they must stay independent. PTI will need to come up with a solution soon.
Khan’s PTI party used AI to post a message on his X social media account. In the message, Khan rejected Sharif’s victory claim and thanked his supporters for “winning the 2024 elections”. He asked them to celebrate and guard their vote.
“You trusted me and voted in huge numbers. You shocked everyone,” the message said. It said Sharif’s claim was false because he had fewer seats and there was rigging."
Dealing Begins to Form Battling Joint-Family
As no single party wins the majority, the question of a coalition government looming.
To form the government, a party needs the support of at least 26 MPAs, and three parties, including the PPP, PMLN, JUIF and ANP, could comfortably form the coalition government.
The PML-N and the PPP have reportedly agreed to form a unity government in the Centre and Punjab after PML-N leader Shehbaz Sharif met PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto and former president Asif Ali Zardari.
Pakistan’s leading news outlet DAWN said, quoting PML-N party sources that Zardari and Shehbaz agreed to form a government in Punjab and at the centre and both the parties will present their own views in the next meeting and finalize all matters regarding the power-sharing formula as to who will assume which office and where with mutual consultation.
But at the moment, it is difficult to say what will happen. If courts rule in favour of the PTI-affiliated candidates who are challenging the alleged vote manipulation, then Nawaz Sharif’s chances of coming into power are slim.
Rigged Elections?
The alleged manipulation of poll results also pushed the European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom to raise concerns about the fairness of polls. While reacting to allegations of rigging in the general elections, the EU called for a full investigation while the US called into question the “undue restrictions” put in place during polls. The US, however, pledged to work with whoever formed the next government.
British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said the UK urged authorities in Pakistan "to uphold fundamental human rights including free access to information, and the rule of law".
In a statement, he went on to express "regret that not all parties were formally permitted to contest the elections".
Meanwhile, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller criticised what he described as "undue restrictions on freedoms of expression, association, and peaceful assembly" during Pakistan's electoral process.
He also cited "attacks on media workers" and "restrictions on access to the internet and telecommunication services" as reasons to worry about "allegations of interference" in the process.
Many analysts have said this is among Pakistan's least credible elections.
As many as 128 million people were registered to cast their votes, almost half of whom were under the age of 35. More than 5,000 candidates - of whom just 313 are women - contested 266 directly-elected seats in the 336-member National Assembly.
More Instability Ahead?
Many Pakistanis hoped that the February 8 elections would end the country's protracted political and economic turmoil. However, as no party has gained a simple majority in parliament, the bitter conflict between Khan and Sharif is unlikely to cease in the short term.
Pakistan is reeling from a grave financial crisis, high inflation, unemployment and environmental catastrophes, with many Pakistanis struggling to make ends meet and disillusioned by political leaders.
Saira Khan, a schoolteacher in Islamabad, said, "It doesn't matter who comes to power."
"Anybody who comes to power needs to bring political stability to the country, and it is not possible without developing trust among the public. So, elections are important, but I don't think it will make much difference," Saira Khan said, reports DW.
Whoever forms the next government will face huge challenges. The most pressing of these is fixing the economy. The failure to bring down inflation and increase employment opportunities will likely make it unpopular.
Pakistan heavily depends on the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) bailout packages. The next IMF-Pakistan negotiations are scheduled to take place after the new government takes charge. The financial body's tough terms will force the next premier to increase taxes and undertake reforms that will likely further burden the public.
Another substantial challenge for the next government will be dealing with a spike in violent attacks along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan and Iran. The country's Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces have seen a rise in militant attacks in the past few months. To tackle this threat, the next government may need to empower the security forces and launch a military operation in these areas.
The current political scenario is far from conducive for the next premier to carry out these measures.
Military Script Went Wrong?
The military establishment’s attempt to sideline Imran Khan from Pakistan’s politics seems to have backfired, as his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) secured a large number of seats in the elections. The results are remarkable, considering the crackdown on PTI by the authorities.
Khan was convicted and sentenced on dubious charges, and his party’s election symbol was revoked at the last minute. Meanwhile, his main rival Nawaz Sharif’s party faced no such hurdles. However, the delay in announcing the results could indicate a possible manipulation to favour Sharif.
PTI claimed its victory on social media platform X, and urged Sharif to concede defeat. It said that Sharif had a golden opportunity to restore some of his credibility as a democrat, and that the people of Pakistan would never accept him. It also accused the election commission of rigging the results in favour of Sharif, and said that this was a blatant violation of the people’s mandate.
According to PTI, it had won more than 150 out of 266 national assembly seats, and was in a strong position to form the federal government as well as the provincial governments in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It warned that any attempt to alter the results overnight would be resisted and rejected by the people, the media, and the local and international observers.
Ali Usman Qasmi, an assistant professor at Lahore University of Management Sciences, wrote that Imran Khan’s supporters had achieved a miracle, despite the party’s top leadership being jailed, its workers being harassed, its electoral symbol being denied, and its inability to campaign or mobilize voters on the polling day. He wrote:
“Yet they have emerged as the single largest party. Their performance defies all logic of electoral behaviour. All strong candidates were with [the] military’s puppets, ie [Nawaz Sharif]’s PML-N… there was a general perception that PML-N is the king’s party … there was no arrangement to bring voters from home, yet PTI-backed candidates won … Imran Khan’s generic voter base has increased substantially to a point where it does not depend on local dhara [sit-in] politics to win. They still ‘lose’ in the sense that they need coalition partners, but they have won big time in every other way!” – Ali Usman Qasmi, assistant professor, Lahore University of Management Sciences.
Sharif, who had served as the prime minister three times, came back from his four-year self-exile in October, hoping to regain power. However, his party faced a setback in the elections, losing even in his stronghold of central Punjab. Sharif had allegedly struck a deal with the military establishment to facilitate his return before the general election on February 8. He had been deposed and banned from politics for life in 2017 over corruption charges.
Sharif's return coincided with the military's crackdown on PTI, the party of his rival Imran Khan. Khan had fallen out with the establishment, leading to his removal and arrest. Sharif also received a swift bail from the high court in Islamabad, avoiding the risk of being arrested upon arrival. Sharif had defied court orders to return from London for four years, where he had gone in 2019 on the pretext of medical treatment while serving a seven-year jail term for graft.
The election results seemed to be a foregone conclusion, with Sharif having a smooth ride after Khan's rift with the military, which seemed eager to corner Khan further.
Khan however did not give up, claiming that the election results would be in his favour. He had run a campaign against the military before his arrest, gaining popularity. His party, however, faced a tough time in the run-up to the national election on February 8, due to the crackdown. Khan was kept in a high-security prison and barred from holding office for 10 years to ensure that the election results favoured Sharif.
Khan's conviction was not an isolated incident. Politicians who had clashed with the military establishment had often been prevented from contesting elections. Sharif had also been removed from office and disqualified seven years ago after being convicted of corruption. He was now campaigning for a fourth term as the prime minister, while Khan's party was crippled by the Supreme Court's rejection of its attempt to keep its electoral symbol of a cricket bat.
The rejection and Khan's convictions were a new low for Pakistan's judiciary, which had a notorious history of legitimizing military rulers. They overshadowed its achievements of holding the executive and the establishment accountable.
Nawaz Sharif’s Comeback: A Deal With The Military?
Shehbaz Sharif, the leader of the PML-N party, changed the law to allow his brother Nawaz Sharif to run for office again. Nawaz Sharif, a former prime minister, was disqualified and jailed for corruption in 2017. He returned to Pakistan in 2023 after his convictions were overturned.
Many believe that Nawaz Sharif has struck a deal with the military, which has a history of meddling in politics and overthrowing governments. He has toned down his criticism of the army and expressed his forgiveness for his enemies. He also seems to have the army’s support to defeat his rival Imran Khan, the former prime minister who was ousted in 2022.
The army hopes that Nawaz Sharif, a pragmatic businessman, can revive the economy, which is struggling with inflation, unemployment, and debt. It also wants him to improve relations with India, which is vital for regional stability and trade. However, this may not be easy, as India has changed a lot since Nawaz Sharif’s last term.
Nawaz Sharif’s political career has come full circle. He started as a minister in Punjab, the largest province, under the military dictator Zia-ul-Haq. He became the chief minister of Punjab and then the prime minister three times. He clashed with the army twice and was removed from power in a coup in 1999. He challenged the army’s influence as Pakistan’s most popular leader until his downfall in 2017. Now, he is back in the game, with the army’s apparent backing, to end Khan’s political ambitions.
Khan, a Pashtun from Punjab, has a strong base among the Pashtuns and Punjabis, the two dominant ethnic groups in the army. He was a charismatic leader who promised to end corruption and bring change. He was removed from power after a political crisis and a judicial inquiry. He is now in prison, facing several charges.
Imran Khan: A Brief Rise And Fall
Imran Khan was ousted in 2022 after challenging the power of two corrupt families -- the Sharifs and the Bhuttos -- who have ruled Pakistan since the late 1980s. His supporters protested and demanded new elections, but the military cracked down on his party, PTI, and arrested many of its leaders. Khan was the most popular leader in Pakistan, with a 60% approval rating and control of two provinces and two territories. He accused the military of conspiring against him, after they had helped him win the 2018 election.
Khan's conflict with the military was not new. It followed a pattern that started in the 1960s, when Ayub Khan, a military dictator, appointed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto as his foreign minister. Bhutto turned against him and formed the PPP, a popular party that opposed Ayub Khan's rule. Ayub Khan resigned in 1969 after a mass movement.
Bhutto became the prime minister, but he made a mistake by choosing Zia-ul-Haq as the army chief, overruling seven senior officers. Zia was a refugee from India who did not belong to the "martial races" that dominated the army. He seemed harmless and loyal to Bhutto, but he staged a coup in 1977 and executed Bhutto in 1979 on false charges.
Zia's successors were also from the martial races, and they often clashed with civilian leaders. Nawaz Sharif, a businessman, was ousted twice by the army, in 1993 and 1999. He returned to power in 2013, but he was disqualified and jailed for corruption in 2017. He came back to Pakistan in 2023, after a deal with the military, to defeat Khan in the 2024 election.
Khan, a Pashtun from Punjab, had a strong base among the Pashtuns and Punjabis, the two main ethnic groups in the army. He was a charismatic leader who promised to end corruption and bring change. He was removed from power after a political crisis and a judicial inquiry. He is now in prison, facing several charges.
Imran Khan was removed in 2022 after he challenged the Sharifs and the Bhuttos, two corrupt families who have ruled Pakistan since the late 1980s. His supporters demanded new elections, but the military crushed his party, PTI, and arrested many of its leaders. Khan was the most popular leader in Pakistan, with a 60% approval rating and control of most of the country. He accused the military of plotting against him, after they had helped him win the 2018 election.
Khan’s conflict with the military was not new. It followed a pattern that started in the 1960s, when Ayub Khan, a military dictator, appointed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto as his foreign minister. Bhutto turned against him and formed the PPP, a popular party that opposed Ayub Khan’s rule. Ayub Khan resigned in 1969 after a mass movement.
Bhutto became the prime minister, but he made a mistake by choosing Zia-ul-Haq as the army chief, overruling seven senior officers. Zia was a refugee from India who did not belong to the “martial races” that dominated the army. He seemed harmless and loyal to Bhutto, but he staged a coup in 1977 and executed Bhutto in 1979 on false charges.
Zia’s successors were also from the martial races, and they often clashed with civilian leaders. Nawaz Sharif, a businessman, was ousted twice by the army, in 1993 and 1999. He returned to power in 2013, but he was disqualified and jailed for corruption in 2017. He came back to Pakistan in 2023, after a deal with the army, to defeat Khan in the 2024 election.
Khan, a Pashtun from Punjab, had a strong base among the Pashtuns and Punjabis, the two main ethnic groups in the army. He was a charismatic leader who promised to end corruption and bring change. He was removed from power after a political crisis and a judicial inquiry. He is now in prison, facing several charges.
Khan briefly challenged the army’s domination, but he was soon put in his place. The army’s power is rooted in the 1857 revolt against the British, when most soldiers were from the upper-caste Hindu communities of eastern and northern India. They rebelled, while Punjabi and Gurkha soldiers stayed loyal to the British.
How The Army Became Pakistan's Most Powerful Institution
The British favored soldiers from Punjab and the NWFP, now Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, after the 1857 revolt against them. These regions became part of Pakistan in 1947, giving it one-third of the British Indian army. This was the biggest resource Pakistan got from British India.
Pakistan's army was still half the size of India's in 1947, making security the main concern of the new country. Pakistan's founders feared India and spent 75% of their first budget on defense in 1948.
The army became the strongest institution, while the political leaders were weak and died soon. Mohammad Ali Jinnah and Liaquat Ali Khan passed away in 1948 and 1951. The constitution was finalized only in 1956, as the army gained more influence in politics. Imran Khan faced the worst crisis for the army since Musharraf was ousted by a lawyers' movement in 2008.
ISI, the spy agency, also faced many cases after Musharraf's removal. The opposition leader called the military a "mafia". Jamaat-e-Islami proposed a law to limit ISI's powers. The Supreme Court ordered a trial of two former army chiefs for rigging the 1990 election. They admitted to spending millions to bring Nawaz Sharif to power.
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto created ISI's political wing and made it interfere in politics in the 1970s. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 was a boon for ISI and the army, who were demoralized by Pakistan's breakup in 1971.
The US and other powers gave billions of dollars to ISI to support the anti-Soviet war in the 1980s. The war made ISI independent and rich, and increased its power in the military and the state.
ISI became the symbol of the army's supremacy. It was not just a covert agency. It also handled domestic security, foreign policy, and politics. Imran Khan challenged the army's role, but he failed. The army prevailed and convicted him of selling state gifts. He was disqualified from the elections.
Pakistan’s military has created a hybrid regime, where it meddles in politics behind the scenes. Imran Khan, the former prime minister, was ousted in 2022 after he challenged the military’s domain. He tried to discredit the army chief Asim Munir as loyal to Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the PML-N party. He also faced rumors of a split in the army. He was arrested on May 9, 2023, after his supporters attacked military bases. He was charged with conspiring to cause a mutiny in the army.
Munir has tightened his grip and punished Khan’s party, PTI, for the May 9 violence. He has maintained the military’s upper hand in policy matters, showing that hybrid politics is still alive. The military will keep its control no matter who wins the next election, even though Pakistan has had civilian rule for 15 years since Musharraf resigned in 2008.
Musharraf’s successors have given the military more power over national security, foreign relations, and the military budget. Khan made Bajwa, the former army chief, a member of the National Development Council, a body for economic growth, in 2019. He also got Bajwa to freeze the military budget for the first time due to the economic crisis. Khan was in the military’s good books until he crossed the line and lost their support.
Nawaz Sharif, who was ousted twice by the army, in 1993 and 1999, has made a deal with the military to return to power in 2023. He has agreed to defeat Khan in the 2024 election. He has shown the shortsightedness of Pakistan’s politicians, who only care about power and not democracy. The 2024 election results may surprise them.
