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Geopolitical Risks in 2024: Threats to Economic Stability

Geopolitical Risks in 2024: Threats to Economic Stability

As we step into the new year, the prospect of a soft landing for the US-led developed world's economy gains momentum, yet the evolving geopolitical landscape in 2024 introduces complexities that merit careful scrutiny. 

This analysis delves into the potential spoilers on the horizon and their ramifications for global economic dynamics.

Stability Amidst Uncertainty

While current geopolitical hotspots, including Russia's involvement in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the US-China rivalry, appear relatively stable, their fragility underscores the vulnerability of the global economy to unforeseen shifts.

Economic Risks in 2024

Within the economic sphere, 2024 brings new risks. Successful measures to control pandemic-induced inflation may be overshadowed by the lingering effects of assertive monetary tightening campaigns. Failure to navigate this delicate phase decisively could jeopardize the anticipated soft landing.

Elections and Policy Shifts

With elections in over 50 economies shaping the incentives of policymakers, the political landscape becomes a crucial factor. One election, in particular, could reshape geopolitics and global economics, adding another layer of uncertainty to the economic outlook.

Flashpoints and Escalation

Potential disruptions, such as the conclusion of American aid to Ukraine, calls for stricter asylum policies, and resistance from Hungary, serve as flashpoints with the potential to escalate tensions. The Middle East, with persistent conflicts and the specter of a broader regional war, poses additional economic risks.

Eastward Complexities

Presidential elections in Taiwan and China's keen interest introduce geopolitical complexities, impacting global trade dynamics. Heightened tensions between Taiwan and mainland China could have far-reaching economic consequences.

Interconnected Geopolitical Dynamics

These geopolitical dynamics are interconnected, with the potential to reinforce each other. For instance, a Russian triumph in Ukraine coinciding with disruptions in European-Asian maritime trade could embolden China in its approach to Taiwan.

Worst-Case Scenarios

While these scenarios represent worst-case possibilities, proactive monitoring is essential. Should geopolitical tensions not derail the prevailing economic trajectory, the central economic query for 2024 revolves around the potential resurgence of interest rates to pre-Covid levels.

Economic Projections

Economists project a settling of borrowing costs at elevated levels post-pandemic, citing factors such as secure global supply chains and the green energy transition. Dissenting opinions highlight countervailing forces, including China's investments and global excess capacity, which could mitigate upward pressures.

As we navigate the intricacies of 2024, a meticulous examination of geopolitical developments and their nuanced impact on the global economy is imperative. This analysis serves as a guide to understanding the potential risks and opportunities, ensuring a comprehensive approach to economic forecasting and strategic decision-making in the year ahead.

Sayed Hasan Al Manzur

Sayed Hasan Al Manzur


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