The Bangladeshi economy's slow pace may trigger a recession, as noted by Dr. Monzur Hossain, Research Director of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS). Speaking at a seminar titled "Current Economic State and Way Forward," held by the Bangladesh Institute of Social Research (BISR) Trust in Dhaka, Dr. Hossain expressed concerns over the lack of immediate results from fiscal policy measures, stating that meaningful changes are unlikely within the next six months due to the nature of economic adjustments.

Dr. Hossain highlighted decreased government spending and a significant drop in both public and private investments. He pointed to the National Board of Revenue's (NBR) dual role in policy creation and implementation as a factor limiting positive outcomes, and criticized Bangladesh’s low tax-to-GDP ratio, the lowest in South Asia, as unsustainable under current policies.

The discussion also addressed issues within Bangladesh’s banking sector. Dr. Hossain noted that Bangladesh Bank's strategy to stabilize fragile banks through liquidity support has faced challenges. He remarked that the absence of robust economic policies in the previous administration has left Bangladesh lagging behind neighboring countries in controlling inflation. Dr. Hossain stressed that tackling inflation solely through monetary policy could lead to severe repercussions across various sectors, from industry to trade.

Further, Dr. Hossain advocated for maintaining foreign reserves between $25-30 billion, reflecting on how past reserves of $48 billion were largely due to reduced imports post-pandemic. He also urged for investments of higher quality and emphasized the need for an autonomous central bank to ensure impartial governance.

The seminar, moderated by Dr. Khurshed Alam, Chairman of BISR Trust, underscored the importance of accurate data for understanding developmental activities. Dr. Alam questioned the reliability of past government data, advocating for transparency and accountability. He also noted issues with large infrastructure projects, citing examples like the Padma Bridge and Karnaphuli Tunnel, where he argued that weak planning often undermined their effectiveness.

Panelists at the seminar included Dr. Md. Murad Ahmed of BISR Trust, who suggested improving the capital market to bolster investor confidence, and AKM Riaz Uddin from The Hunger Project, who warned that sudden shifts in economic policy could have destabilizing effects. Prominent businessman Swapan Kumar Das raised concerns about unfavorable loan agreements and the potential economic risks for investors if current issues persist. Dr. Mohammad Yakub, CEO of the All Bangladesh Research and Development Group, stressed the role of research in promoting financial transparency.

The event saw attendance from government officials, private sector representatives, and university researchers, reflecting the broad concern over Bangladesh's economic trajectory. The BISR Trust, which organized the seminar, is a non-governmental organization dedicated to social justice, development, and advocacy for marginalized communities.