In an extraordinary turn of events, Bangladesh’s two archrivals—the Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)—are reportedly engaging in secret discussions to prevent the rise of a student-led political movement that threatens to upend the nation’s dynastic political order.

“Sheikh Hasina has tasked Mohammed Hasan Mahmud, a senior Awami League leader and former foreign minister, along with Mohammad A. Arafat, a former state minister for information and broadcasting, to initiate talks with the BNP,” a top Awami League insider revealed on condition of anonymity. “The aim is to form a consensus against this rising third power.”

Although neither Mahmud nor Arafat has publicly confirmed these discussions, other senior Awami League figures hinted at a growing alignment with the BNP on shared concerns. “BNP is no longer our main opponent. The real threat now comes from Jamaat-e-Islami and these student-led movements,”  another Awami League top leader told Tvista who also requested anonymity.

This revelation comes as Bangladesh’s political scene undergoes seismic shifts following mass protests that unseated Sheikh Hasina’s government. The Awami League, which has been at the center of Bangladesh’s political power for 15 years, now finds itself in a precarious position, grappling with widespread public discontent and calls for its dissolution.

The catalyst for this realignment lies in the unprecedented rise of student-led activism, which transformed into a formidable political force during the July-August 2024 protests. Initially focused on abolishing the government job quota system, the movement quickly escalated into a nationwide outcry against authoritarianism, corruption, and human rights abuses under Sheikh Hasina’s regime. The government’s brutal crackdown on protesters, which left over 2,000 people dead, including 65 children, has fueled calls for the Awami League’s outright ban.

“The way Chhatra League and Jubo League have violated humanity, they have no moral right to continue in politics,” said Hasnat Abdullah, the central coordinator of the Anti-Discrimination Student Movement. “Just as Nazi forces were banned in Germany and Fascists in Italy, the Awami League and its affiliates must be banned from the soil of Bengal.”

This sentiment has gained traction among the public, particularly among young voters and activists who see the traditional political parties as symbols of corruption and oppression. The student movement’s leaders have emerged as influential voices advocating for a new political order, posing a direct challenge to the dominance of the Awami League and BNP.

Covert Talks and Strategic Shifts

Faced with this growing threat, the Awami League and BNP appear to have set aside their longstanding rivalry to preserve their political survival. While neither party has officially confirmed these discussions, multiple sources within the Awami League suggest that the two sides have held at least two rounds of talks in Kolkata and New Delhi. The discussions reportedly revolved around strategies to counter the student movement and coordinate efforts for the upcoming elections.

In a leaked meeting with Awami League leaders, Joint General Secretary Hasan Mahmud was heard expressing gratitude to the BNP for opposing proposals to ban the Awami League. “We thank BNP for opposing the idea of banning the Awami League,” Mahmud reportedly said. “There is no last word in politics. We will work with any political party for the sake of democracy.”

Another senior Awami League leader acknowledged the shifting dynamics, stating, “BNP is no longer our main opponent. The real threat now comes from Jamaat-e-Islami and the rising political parties led by students.”

Opposition to Banning the Awami League

The idea of banning the Awami League has sparked intense debate within Bangladesh and beyond. While student leaders and sections of the public strongly advocate for its dissolution, citing its record of human rights abuses, other political and international actors warn against such a move.

BNP Vice Chairman Abdul Awal Mintoo dismissed the notion of banning the Awami League, emphasizing the importance of maintaining political inclusivity. “If Awami League participates in the election, it will do so as a competing party. This does not concern the BNP,” Mintoo said. “Faced with the student and public uprising, the Awami League lost power in a humiliating manner on August 5. We have no conflict with them.”

Veteran freedom fighter and BNP advisor Fazlur Rahman echoed this sentiment, predicting that the Awami League would re-enter politics in some form. “Those who think that the Awami League will never return are mistaken. The party will return to politics—perhaps not under this name or leadership, but it will return nonetheless.”

However, the student leaders remain firm in their stance. “BNP’s stance on Awami League politics is deeply disappointing,” said Hasnat Abdullah. “While the public is demanding accountability, BNP seems more focused on preserving the status quo.”

Adding to the complexity is the role of international stakeholders. According to interim government advisor Asif Mahmud Sajib Bhuiyan, several embassies have voiced concerns about banning the Awami League, arguing that such a move could undermine democratic principles. “When we, on behalf of the government, talk about banning the Awami League, many political parties and international actors obstruct it through speeches and statements,” Bhuiyan said.

Legal experts within the interim government have also raised objections. “Banning a political party sets a dangerous precedent,” said Asif Nazrul, advisor for law, justice, and parliamentary affairs. “No matter its past actions, dismantling a party outright is not the solution. Accountability must be pursued within the framework of democracy.”

As Bangladesh approaches another pivotal election, the nation’s political dynamics are in flux. The collaboration—albeit reluctant—between the Awami League and BNP signals a potential recalibration of alliances in the face of growing student-led activism. Whether this coalition will succeed in preserving the status quo or crumble under the weight of public dissent remains to be seen. For now, the streets, once filled with chants for change, serve as a stark reminder of the challenges to the country’s entrenched political establishment.

A Third Force Rising?

In the aftermath of Sheikh Hasina’s government collapse and growing public frustration with the BNP, a new political movement is emerging to fill the void. The Jatiya Nagorik Committee (JNC), officially launched on September 8, 2024, has positioned itself as a fresh alternative to the dynastic politics that have long defined Bangladesh. Formed at the Central Shaheed Minar, the JNC draws heavily from the legacy of past student movements and the momentum of the recent summer protests.

Led by Nasiruddin Patwary, Akhter Hossain, and spokesperson Samanta Sharmin, the 55-member committee aims to unite a disillusioned public under a vision of justice, inclusivity, and reform. “We are rejecting entitlement-driven politics and building a platform focused on responsibility,” said Patwary at the group’s inaugural rally.

At its core, the JNC advocates for bold reforms, including a bicameral parliament, a two-term limit for the prime minister, and greater judicial independence. Grassroots initiatives like “Dhaka Rising” and “Rajshahi Rising” are building local networks to sustain the momentum of the protests and engage younger voters.

However, the path ahead is fraught with challenges. While still a civil platform, leaders have acknowledged that forming a political party is inevitable. “The public is demanding a new political force,” Sharmin said, “but it must be carefully planned to meet their expectations.” Questions also loom over the group’s financial sustainability, as it currently relies on member contributions and small donations. Efforts to establish a finance cell for public fundraising are in progress but remain in their infancy.

The JNC’s recruitment policy further sets it apart. By excluding collaborators of past oppressive regimes and focusing on youth and grassroots leaders, it seeks to create a new standard in Bangladeshi politics. But scaling up without compromising its ideals will be a delicate balancing act.

For now, the JNC offers a glimmer of hope in a fractured political landscape. Whether it can transform public disillusionment into meaningful change remains to be seen. But as Bangladesh searches for an alternative to its entrenched political establishment, the JNC’s rise signals that the desire for reform is stronger than ever.