Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) on Thursday has issued an arrest warrant for former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, accusing her of involvement in "crimes against humanity" during mass protests earlier this year. 

The protests, which escalated into widespread violence, what Sheikh Hasina and her party says for ‘external involvement’ led to over hundreds of deaths, ultimately forcing Sheikh Hasina to flee to India on August 5 to ‘avoid further bloodshed.’

India’s Ministry of External Affairs confirmed Hasina’s presence in India on Thursday (October 18). Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal reiterated during a weekly briefing that Hasina arrived on short notice due to safety concerns and remains in the country. “She continues to be here,” Jaiswal said, dismissing media speculation that Hasina had moved to the United Arab Emirates or another country.

The violent protests, originally sparked by student-led opposition to public sector job quotas, evolved into some of the deadliest unrest in Bangladesh since its independence in 1971.

Opposition parties including Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), banned Bangladesh Jamaat E Islami, and some outlawed organization including Hizbut-Tahrir joined the protest. 

The former government alleged that the protest was a plot to overthrow the Awami League government. The accusations grow stronger after Bangladesh’s new chief advisor Muhammad Yunus said the protest was ‘meticulously designed.’ Hasina government accused oppositions and external involvement for widespread bloodshed, saying intruders in the movement shoot people with fatal weapons. 

In response to the chaos, Hasina’s government collapsed, leading to her departure from the country. The interim administration that replaced her, headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, took office five days after her departure.

International Crimes Tribunal’s chief prosecutor, Mohammad Tajul Islam, emphasized the importance of the arrest warrant for a thorough investigation. “The court granted our petition and ordered the arrest of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina,” he said, setting a deadline of November 18 for her to be brought before the tribunal.

Since the fall of Hasina’s government, more than two hundred complaints have been filed against her and other Awami League leaders, alleging their involvement in enforced disappearances, murder, and mass killings. These allegations have fueled further political tension in Bangladesh.

Unlikely Extradition 

However, any move to extradite Hasina faces significant obstacles. The India-Bangladesh Extradition Treaty, signed in 2013, contains provisions that could shield Hasina from extradition on political grounds. Article 6 of the treaty allows for the refusal of extradition if the offense is deemed political in nature. Additionally, Article 7 enables India to reject an extradition request if the person could be tried for the same offense under Indian law. Article 8 provides further grounds for refusal, such as if the offense is deemed trivial, the accusation lacks good faith, or the statute of limitations has expired.

While members of Bangladesh’s interim government have called for Hasina’s extradition, the bilateral treaty's political stipulations make it unlikely. The treaty has, however, successfully facilitated the extradition of terrorists and criminals in recent years, but its application in Hasina’s case remains contentious.

South Asia expert Sreeradha Datta also pointed to long-running links between India and Hasina's regime, saying it was "unlikely that India will let Hasina down" by deportation.

"Both governments must show pragmatism and maturity while dealing with the situation. It cannot be the case that allowing Hasina stay should impinge on future relations," Datta, a professor of international affairs at the Jindal Global University, reports DW.

At a press briefing in late August, Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said extradition was in the "realm of hypothetical issues."

"As we stated earlier, the former prime minister of Bangladesh came to India at very short notice for reasons of safety. We have nothing further to add on that matter," Jaiswal told reporters.

Bilateral Relations to Continue  

Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal at a press conference earlier admitted that bilateral projects were affected by the current situation in Bangladesh.

The neighboring country is India's biggest trade partner in South Asia, with bilateral trade estimated at $15.9 billion (€14.55 billion) in the fiscal year 2022-23. Before Hasina's ouster, both sides were also due to start talks for a free trade deal.

Since the regime change in Dhaka, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spoken to Bangladesh's interim leader Yunus and pledged that New Delhi will continue implementing its development projects across the border.

Modi reiterated “India's support for a democratic, stable, peaceful and progressive Bangladesh.”

As the November 18 deadline approaches, it remains unclear whether Bangladesh will formally pursue Hasina’s extradition or if diplomatic negotiations will ease the growing strain on bilateral relations.