Counter-revolution following a revolution is not a new phenomenon. This has occurred repeatedly in various countries, sometimes successfully, sometimes not. Bangladesh's revolution shares many similarities with other revolutions worldwide.
The Rollercoaster of Post-Revolutionary Politics
Post-revolutionary periods often bring political instability. People develop intense optimism after a revolution, as seen in Bangladesh. However, history shows that such expectations are rarely realistic. Change takes time.
People can become disillusioned quickly. The Arab world provides examples. Despite the fall of rulers in Tunisia and Egypt, severe political instability ensued. Tunisia's revolution established a fragile democracy that still faces many challenges. In Egypt, military rule returned shortly after, shattering revolutionary hopes. Revolutionary success is a difficult path. Bangladesh may face similar crises. Without stable governance, people will start questioning the revolution's outcomes.
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Revolutions typically unite various classes and groups who come together for change, playing a central role in challenging powerful rulers. A key tactic for undermining revolutions is spreading rumors. False videos create confusion among people, as is happening relentlessly in Bangladesh. The rumor that 10 million Hindus are leaving the country is baseless. There's a far-reaching goal behind playing this card. Indian media constantly spreads misinformation to stir up divisions.
Tunisia is the only North African country to transition through its revolution, albeit dramatically. The uprising began on December 17, 2010, when a young street vendor set himself on fire after police harassment, fed up with government corruption and oppression. This event ignited protests across the Middle East as people demanded jobs, better living conditions, and greater freedom. Tunisian police killed hundreds of protesters. Despite President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali's reform promises, distrust grew. On January 14, 2011, Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia with his family.
Bangladesh's situation shares similarities with Tunisia's. Starting with the quota movement and ending with Hasina's resignation. On August 5, Sheikh Hasina fled to India with her family. Here too, police killed hundreds. Various domestic and foreign powers tried but failed to keep her in power. Shooting at people from helicopters caused a massive reaction, unprecedented in the region.
The Aftermath: Conspiracies, Challenges, and Hope
Two weeks after the successful revolution have passed amidst many conspiracies and challenges. There was an attempt at a judicial coup. Some events are making the revolutionary activities controversial. Encouragingly, responsibility is being taken for incidents, which didn't happen before. Professor Dr. Muhammad Yunus is the only symbol of hope. The country is now moving towards post-revolutionary reforms centered around him. Although his control isn't yet established in all areas. The situation remains shaky and fragile everywhere. The revolution's leaders seem to realize that Yunus's governance cannot function with Sheikh Hasina's administration.
If political forces fail to engage in proper politics in this situation, maintaining the success of the revolution may prove difficult, as has happened in other parts of the world. It's essential to learn from Latin American revolutions, which were driven by the hope of escaping economic crises. Venezuela's experience demonstrates the importance of managing the economy correctly after a revolution.
Increased social tension is natural following a revolution, which can create further instability. A major threat to revolution is the resurgence of reactionary forces attempting to restore the old system, often ending in military coups. Bangladesh's ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, has described this revolution as illegal and chaotic. False propaganda creates division and sows doubt, weakening the revolution. These tactics aim to destabilize the new government and potentially invite foreign intervention.
The 1917 Russian Revolution ended Tsarist rule, creating chaos and marking a significant turning in Russia's imperialist history. Food shortages, military failures, and autocratic rule led to public protests that evolved into a new revolution. Tsar Nicholas abdicated, creating a power vacuum. The new government failed to control the situation, resulting in nationwide disorder and anarchy.
Similarly, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's resignation in Bangladesh has created uncertainty. Police have refrained from working, as happened in Russia, leading to a deterioration of law and order. The lack of law enforcement in Bangladesh has created insecurity and fear, negatively impacting people's daily lives.
People organize themselves to maintain the revolution's success and take measures for self-protection. Social tensions typically increase after a revolution, leading to conflicts between different communities. During the Russian Revolution, violent attacks against minorities increased fear. In Bangladesh, rumors of attacks on minorities spread, though most incidents were proven false. The main goal was to create tension through political supporters.
Mass resignations of officials weaken the government and reduce public trust in institutions. In Bangladesh, the resignations of the Chief Justice and the Central Bank Governor, like government resignations in Russia, are significant and further weaken the country's administrative structure.
The collapse of Russia's police and judiciary led to a lack of control in Petrograd, posing a major threat to public safety. In Russia, government failure allowed the Bolsheviks to come to power. They established strict control despite promises of change, limiting people's rights. In Bangladesh, extremists could similarly seize power in the chaos, as revolutionary extremists did in Russia.
The Road Ahead: Balancing Ideals with Governance
Revolutions worldwide have taught that without transparent communication with the public and strong relationships with international allies, revolutions can derail. The main task is to provide accurate information to the people and keep them united. The ultimate test of a revolution is establishing a new governance system. Like Latin American revolutionary governments, Bangladesh's government must balance preserving revolutionary ideals with practical governance needs to avoid increasing chaos.
The success of the revolution largely depends on the coordinators of the anti-discrimination student movement, who are the driving force behind this revolution. They must be extremely cautious when speaking publicly, as we all know excessive publicity can create new crises. Brigadier General (Retd.) M Sakhawat Hossein is a prime example of this.
Various countries have taken different measures to deal with post-revolutionary situations. These include maintaining national unity, emphasizing economic stability, strengthening institutions, establishing social justice, being cautious of dictatorship, and strengthening relationships with the international community.
Tunisia's nascent democracy has faced repeated challenges. Conflicts between secular and Islamist parties over the role of Islam in politics have created discord. Tensions peaked in 2013 when two prominent secular politicians, Chokri Belaid and Mohamed Brahmi, were assassinated. This plunged the country into a political crisis, which then led to the onset of civil war.