The 1960s saw several significant events reshape the political landscape of the Indian subcontinent, including the 1962 Sino-Indian War and the 1965 Indo-Pakistani War. The latter conflict severed rail communications through East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) that had been established by the British for India.

On June 22, 2024, during a joint statement in Delhi, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighted, "In the last 10 years, we have restored the pre-1965 connection." He emphasized that connectivity, trade, and mutual cooperation are central to the relationship between India and Bangladesh.

Prior to the Bangladesh-India summit, The Times of India reported on June 16 that India aims to connect its northeastern states through Bangladesh, leveraging the 1980 trade agreement. This plan involves 14 new connections spanning 861 kilometers, bypassing the strategically vulnerable Siliguri Corridor, known as the "Chicken's Neck."

In his eight-minute speech, Modi noted several achievements in bilateral connectivity:

• The launch of rail connectivity between Akhaura and Agartala
• Initiation of cargo facilities from Mongla port in Khulna to India's northeast
• First-time rail connection to Mongla port

Modi attributed these developments to the strong relationship between his government and Sheikh Hasina's government in Bangladesh. He framed this cooperation within India's "Neighborhood First" policy, Act East policy, and Indo-Pacific Strategy.

The Indo-Pacific region encompasses countries surrounding the Indian and Pacific Oceans, including the United States, Japan, China, Australia, India, and Bangladesh. In February 2022, the Biden administration announced its Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS), envisioning a free, open, connected, prosperous, and secure region. Notably, China was excluded from this framework and has alleged that the IPS is an attempt by the Western alliance to militarily encircle it.

In 2021, Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Li Jiming warned that Bangladesh's participation in the US-led IPS would "substantially" damage Dhaka-Beijing relations. In response, the Awami League government strategically prioritized economic activities and announced its own IPS framework in 2023.

During the joint statement in Delhi, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina did not directly address the Indo-Pacific framework or provide specific details about rail connectivity. Her speech, lasting less than 10 minutes, broadly mentioned discussions on politics, trade, connectivity, regional and multilateral cooperation, and other issues.

The lack of specific information leaves several questions unanswered:

• Are new rail connections being established through Bangladesh?
• What exactly is being implemented?
• What tangible benefits will Bangladesh gain from these initiatives?

While a brief description of the memorandums of understanding signed between the two countries was provided by Bangladesh's Foreign Ministry, the full scope and implications of these agreements remain unclear.

It mentions that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's visit on June 21-22, as the first head of government on a bilateral visit, was highly successful. According to Bangladesh's Foreign Minister and Awami League Joint General Secretary Dr. Hasan Mahmud, a total of ten memorandums were signed, including:

1. Bangladesh-India Digital Partnership

2. Bangladesh-India Green Partnership

3. Maritime cooperation and blue economy

4. Agreements with India's IN-SPACe and Ministry of Post and Telecommunications

5. Rail connectivity between Bangladesh and Indian railway ministries

6. Research cooperation between Bangladesh Oceanographic Research Institute and India's National Oceanographic Institute

7. Military education cooperation between Defence Services Staff College, Wellington-India and Mirpur Defence Services Command and Staff College

8. Renewal of health and medicine-related agreements

9. Renewal of existing agreement on disaster management and mitigation between India's National Disaster Management Authority and Bangladesh's Ministry of Relief and Disaster Management

10. Renewal of existing agreement on fisheries development

Foreign Minister Dr. Hasan Mahmud later informed journalists that detailed discussions were held on connectivity between the two countries, and there's interest and progress in using Chattogram and Mongla ports for India's northeast, especially the eastern region.

What's known?

On May 29, 2024, Dhaka's daily Kaler Kantho reported that India has proposed operating trains through Bangladesh's railways to improve connectivity between its eastern and northeastern regions. The plan involves:

Existing route: A rail line from Gede station (West Bengal's Nadia district) to Dalgaon station (Alipurduar district).
Proposed route: Enter Bangladesh at Darshana, use the Ishwardi-Abdulpur-Parbatipur route to Chilahati, then re-enter India.
Benefits: This would reduce travel time and distance for Indian trains by at least 100 kilometers.

The Indian High Commission, on behalf of the Indian Railway Board, presented this proposal to Bangladesh Railway after an Indian delegation visited key train interchanges along the Bangladesh-India border.

Bangladesh's Perspective: Bangladesh aims to expand rail connectivity beyond bilateral ties with India, envisioning a broader regional network that includes Nepal and Bhutan. Key points:

Regional connectivity: Bangladesh Railway's Additional Director General Arifuzzaman told Bangla Outlook that the Asian Development Bank is studying how to connect Nepal and Bhutan through Bangladesh's rail network.
Inter-ministerial discussion: On May 15, 2024, various Bangladeshi government bodies met to discuss India's proposal, including, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Public Security Division, Security Services Division, Ministry of Shipping, National Board of Revenue, Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission.

Extended proposal: The meeting noted that India has now extended the previously proposed route to Dalgaon, an Indian railway station near the Bhutan border, potentially aligning with Bangladesh's regional connectivity goals.

Implications and Considerations:

Economic benefits: Improved rail connectivity could boost trade and economic cooperation in the region.
Geopolitical significance: This initiative aligns with broader regional strategies like India's 'Act East' policy and efforts to counter China's influence.
Infrastructure development: The project would require significant investment in rail infrastructure and border facilities.
Sovereignty and security: Bangladesh will need to carefully consider the implications of allowing foreign trains to operate on its soil.
Environmental impact: Increased rail traffic could have both positive (reduced road congestion) and negative (noise, pollution) environmental effects.

Next Steps:

• Detailed feasibility studies and environmental impact assessments
• Negotiations on operational details, costs, and revenue sharing
• Addressing legal and regulatory frameworks for cross-border rail operations
• Public consultations and stakeholder engagement in affected areas

This proposed rail connectivity project represents a significant step towards greater regional integration in South Asia. However, its success will depend on careful planning, mutual benefits, and addressing potential challenges related to sovereignty, security, and environmental concerns.

What are the analysts saying?

Obaidul Haque has been teaching at the Department of International Relations at Dhaka University for decades. This researcher was also observing Sheikh Hasina's recent visit. He teaches students about international rail connections within Bangladesh. He briefly reminds us of the rail connections in British India before the partition in 1947. He says that after the 1965 Indo-Pakistani War, India's rail connections through the present Bangladesh territory became essentially non-functional. Over the past decade, the restoration of these connections between Bangladesh and India has begun.

He believes that the places where connections have been restored are strategically important to India. We are interested to know how much Bangladesh has commercially benefited from the rail connections that have been re-established or the new rail bridges that have connected India through Bangladesh.

He thinks that India's initiative for connectivity through Bangladesh has "serious security implications" for Bangladesh. If there's a war between India and China in the near future, will India use these connections to confront China? That question remains.

'Will Bangladesh be able to maintain its neutrality?' This international analyst also raises this question.

Obaidul Haque says the fear is that we don't know much about the rail connections between Bangladesh and India. In the past, we've seen changes, we've seen the transition from meter gauge to broad gauge. The people of Bangladesh need to know why these are happening.

This Dhaka University teacher says, although we haven't learned anything directly from the Bangladesh government, we've seen in Indian newspapers that India will add 14 new lines where 861 kilometers of new railway lines will be established.

A top leader of the Awami League recently said that India wants to restore the pre-1965 water and rail routes through Bangladesh in their own way, mainly keeping China's power in mind. He says that's why waterways and river ports in the northern region are being reopened after several decades.

Is Bangladesh becoming a field to be used against China?

This question was asked to former ambassador, retired Major General Shahidul Haque. He thinks that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has just completed her India visit. She will visit China soon. We'll understand which direction the relationship is heading from the announcements coming from China. Many are surprised after seeing new rail connections shown in Indian newspapers, and I'm surprised to see their surprise. This has been happening for the last 15 years.

He was saying, I remember in 2003, an Indian think tank had drawn up a map of connections surrounding Bangladesh. Now we see that it's being implemented exactly. Look at all the connectivity infrastructure that has been built in the last 15 years. Do you think people from Bangladesh are going to Haldibari-Chilahati for medical treatment? How much is Bangladesh's interest there?

Shahidul Haque says, 'I personally support regional connectivity. But that should enable travel from Dhaka to Nepal or Bhutan by train. Can someone from Dhaka go directly to Delhi? We need to know where and how our commercial benefits have actually occurred.'

'Now notice which military infrastructures of India these connections are actually linking. What are we seeing?' he says.

In October 1962, when the United States and the then Soviet Union were busy with the Cuban Missile Crisis, India went to war with China. It continued until November.

Analysts think that if a conflict arises between China and Taiwan, India wants to take advantage of that opportunity at its border. To India, the security question is much more important than the aspirations of Bangladesh's people. And this larger democratic country has supported its preferred government in Bangladesh for its own interests. They think Bangladesh might face a situation like Ukraine in the future.

When asked about this, former ambassador Shahidul Haque says the big fear about India's rail connections surrounding Bangladesh is that it will seriously hurt China's interests. Because India wants to ensure military logistic supply in any emergency time.

This former ambassador says, 'I don't think Bangladesh should fall into the dispute between India and China.'"

This version maintains the original structure while improving clarity and readability. It retains all key points and opinions expressed by Shahidul Haque and other analysts.